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إعلان فرض عقوبات أمريكية.. خلفيّات التوقيت وتداعيات الصِّـراع

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إعلان فرض عقوبات أمريكية.. خلفيّات التوقيت وتداعيات الصِّـراع

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بقلم/ محمد الحسن محمد نور

في خضمِّ التطورات المُتسارعة على الأرض السودانية، حيث يُسجِّل الجيش السوداني انتصارات متتالية على حساب مليشيا قوات الدعم السريع المُتقهقرة في معظم الجبهات، أعلنت الإدارة الأمريكية – بشكلٍ مفاجئ – عزمها فرض عقوبات على الحكومة السودانية، متهمةً الجيشَ باستخدام أسلحة كيميائية في مرحلة سابقة من الصِّـراع. الإعلانُ الذي جاء في توقيتٍ بالغ الحساسية يثير الريبة والتساؤلاتٍ عن دوافعه، خاصةً أن التهمةَ لم تُدعَم بأيِّ أدلةٍ ملموسةٍ، ولم يُفتَح أيُّ تحقيقٍ دوليٍّ محايدٍ للتحقق منها.

التزامنُ اللافت مع إعلان مليشيا قوات الدعم السريع – المفاجئ هو الآخر – عن “انتهاء الحرب” مع الجيش، وتصريحاتها حول عزمها تشكيل حكومةٍ موازيةٍ، يدفع إلى الاشتباه حول وجود تنسيقٍ غير مُعلن بين الطرفين، أو استغلالٍ أمريكيٍّ للانقسامات الداخلية لتحقيق أجنداتٍ مُحدَّدة.

اللافت في العقوبات المُقترحة هو استهدافها الحكومةَ السودانية وليس الجيشَ، رغم أنّ الأخيرَ يمسك بالسلطة الفعلية منذ انقلاب 2021، مما يُوحي بمحاولةٍ لتفكيك مؤسسات الدولة، أو دفعها نحو تسويةٍ سياسيةٍ هشَّةٍ تخدم مصالحَ أطرافٍ خارجية. هنا، تُثار تساؤلاتٌ عن مدى ارتباط هذه الخطوة بمحاولاتٍ لتمكين مليشيا قوات الدعم السريع – المدعومة إقليميًّا – من لعب دورٍ سياسيٍّ أكبر، أو حتى إعادة رسم الخريطة السودانية في ظلِّ تنافسٍ دوليٍّ على مناطق النفوذ، لا سيما في دارفور الغنية بالثروات، وعلى شواطئ البحر الأحمر الاستراتيجية.

مليشيا قواتُ الدعم السريع – التي تحوَّلت من مليشيا إلى لاعبٍ عسكريٍّ وسياسيٍّ – لا تُخفي تحالفاتها مع أطرافٍ إقليميةٍ ودولية، حيث ارتبطت منذ عهد البشير بمشاريعَ أمنيةٍ واقتصاديةٍ خارجية، أبرزها التعاون مع الاتحاد الأوروبي في ملف الهجرة غير الشرعية عبر “اتفاقية الخرطوم”، التي منحتها تمويلًا وغطاءً سمحَ بتعزيز نفوذها بعيدًا عن سيطرة الجيش. واليوم، يبدو أن التصريحات الأمريكية الجديدة تمنحها غطاءً معنويًّا جديداً لشرعنة أدوارها المستقبلية، في وقتٍ يدور الحديث حول إدارة مفاوضات فى الخفاء، حول تقاسُم النفوذ بين الأطراف المتصارعة.

لا ينفصل هذا المشهد عن الصراع الدولي الأوسع على السودان، بوابة إفريقيا الجيواستراتيجية، حيث تتنافس القوى الكبرى – بمعية إسرائيل – للوجود قربَ مواردِه وطرقِه البحرية، لا سيما بعد أن تم استدراج الخرطوم – في عهد حكومة ما بعد البشير – لفتحَ ملف التطبيع مع تل أبيب، الذي قد يشهد تسريعًا في حال صعود قوى موالية للغرب.

وراء كل هذه المعادلات، تظل الكارثةُ الإنسانيةُ للشعب السوداني هي الأكثر إلحاحًا، حيث تُستغلُّ الاتهاماتُ المتبادلة – بما فيها ادعاءاتُ الأسلحة الكيميائية – كأوراق ضغطٍ سياسي، بينما يُترك المدنيون وحدهم يواجهون جرائم وانتهاكاتٍ مُـروِّعة يتم الصمت عنها وإهمالها بالكامل ولم تُحقِّق فيها المنظمات الدولية.

السيناريو الأكثر ترجيحًا هو أن العقوبات الأمريكية تُشكل حلقةً في مسارٍ طويلٍ لتفكيك السودان، عبر إضعاف حكومته المركزية لصالح كياناتٍ هجينةٍ تُدار من الخارج. لكن التاريخ يُثبت أن الحلول الجذرية لا تُولد إلا من الداخل، وأن محاولات استنساخ السيناريوهات الليبية أو السورية ستجعل السودان ساحةً لصراعٍ لا ينتهي.

وفى الختام نقول لأهلنا المتصارعين على السلطة (لن تنالوا خفاً واحداً من حنين).

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